Roadmap

Helios Project Roadmap

TL;DR

  • 4 phases: R&D (1-6+ years, parallel) -> Earth (2-4) -> Moon (4-6) -> Mercury (6-15)
  • Total budget: $200-490 billion; peak personnel ~50K people
  • Launches to Moon: 10-20 (technology validation)
  • Launches to Mercury: ~50-100 (99.998% localization, electronics only)
  • Key risk: Track 1 (robots and factories) - new technologies; Track 2 (rockets) - proven experience
  • Energy reception: 40 LSP stations (Moon, ~6,400 km² PV) + 100 rectennas (Earth); rectenna budget $10-20B

From first blueprints to 1000 Mass Drivers on Mercury.

Detailed calculations: Mirrors | Mass Drivers | Production | Delivery | Budget

Two Parallel Tracks

Track Complexity Experience
1. Robots and factories High New technologies
2. Rocket program Medium Decades of country experience

Track 2 - scaling proven technologies. Countries know how to build rockets.

Track 1 - the main challenge. Requires phased validation.

Ground Zero Factory Progression

A unified system tested at three proving grounds:

flowchart TB
    subgraph RND["Phase 1: R&D (years 1-6+)"]
        R1[GZ Factory]
        R2[Lines]
        R3[Robots]
        R4[AI]
    end

    subgraph EARTH["Phase 2: Earth (years 2-4)"]
        E1[GZ prototype]
        E2[MD test]
        E3[Testing]
    end

    subgraph LUNA["Phase 3: Moon (years 4-6)"]
        L1[GZ space]
        L2[LSP]
        L3[MD 2.5 km/s]
        L4[Energy -> Earth]
    end

    subgraph MERCURY["Phase 4: Mercury (years 6-10)"]
        M1[GZ final]
        M2[1->~1650 factories]
        M3[1000 MD]
        M4[Swarm 1.1B]
    end

    RND -.->|"parallel"| EARTH
    RND -.->|"parallel"| LUNA
    EARTH --> LUNA
    LUNA --> MERCURY
    M2 --> M3
    M3 --> M4

    style RND fill:#E3F2FD,stroke:#1976D2,stroke-width:2px
    style EARTH fill:#FFF3E0,stroke:#F57C00,stroke-width:2px
    style LUNA fill:#F5F5F5,stroke:#616161,stroke-width:2px
    style MERCURY fill:#FBE9E7,stroke:#E64A19,stroke-width:2px

Reading the diagram: top to bottom. Each phase validates technologies for the next.

Track 1: Preparation Phases

Phase Years Budget ($B) Peak Staff Launches
1: R&D 1-6+ 15-30 30-50K -
2: Earth Proving Ground 2-4 12-20 15-25K -
3: Moon Proving Ground 4-6 9-18 10-20K 10-20
4: Mercury 6-10 35-50 - ~50-100
TOTAL 1-10 ~90-120 ~50K peak ~70-140

Budget without contingency. With 1.6x contingency → $200-250 billion. Mercury is cost-effective due to self-replication.

Phase 1: R&D and Development (years 1-6+)

Parallel phase: R&D starts in year 1 and continues throughout the preparation period (until year 6+). Technology development runs in parallel with testing on Earth (years 2-4) and Moon (years 4-6). Design, simulations, AI development do not stop until full Mercury readiness is achieved.

Budget: $15-30B | Peak: 30-50K people

Years 1-2: Intensive Design (peak load)

Direction Budget ($B) People
Swarm control software 6-10 12-20K
Autonomy neural networks 4-8 8-15K
VR simulators 2-4 4-8K
Scientific research 2-4 3-6K

For comparison: SpaceX ~13K, Waymo ~2.5K, NVIDIA ~30K employees.

Years 3-6: Refinements and Validation (parallel with proving grounds)

Focus evolution:

Period Work Focus Personnel
Years 3-4 Refinements based on Earth proving ground results 20-30K
Years 5-6 Refinements based on Moon proving ground results 10-20K

Main directions in years 3-6: - Algorithm optimization based on real proving ground data - Fixing identified problems in factory and robot prototypes - Autonomy AI refinement for real conditions (communication delays, unforeseen situations) - VR simulator adaptation for space conditions (temperature, radiation, dust) - Technical documentation preparation for Mercury

Staff reduction: As main design completes (years 1-2), the team gradually shrinks. Only engineers working on refinements and validation based on proving ground data remain.

Ground Zero Factory Design

NoteGoal and Calculation Status

The goal of this documentation is to confirm the fundamental feasibility of the project and provide preliminary budget and timeline estimates. Calculations confirm: all necessary technologies exist (MRE electrolysis, WAAM, solar concentration, electromagnetic launch), materials on Mercury are present in sufficient quantities (Al, Fe, Si, Ti, S), delivery logistics are realistic at current launch cost trends.

All provided numbers (areas, productivities, material flows) are preliminary order-of-magnitude estimates. Transitioning to implementation requires work by a professional engineering team to refine parameters, detailed design, and validation of adopted decisions.

The project’s key unit is the replicator factory (F-R), fully self-sufficient for building new factories (lights-out factories TRL 9). The second type - mirror factory (F-M) - specializes in mirror production.

Replicator factory (F-R) structure: - Dome: 1500 m2 (50x30 m), height 6-8 m, atmosphere 0.1 atm O2 - Zones: foundry, rolling, drawing, forming (WAAM+grinding), robot assembly, dome cutting/welding, equipment assembly - Productivity: 5 robots/day, 1 dome / 2-3 days, 1 equipment set / 2-3 weeks

Mirror factory (F-M): - Same dome (1500 m2), different specialization - Zones: foundry, foil rolling, mirror assembly, QC/packaging - Productivity: ~350 mirrors/day

More details: Factory Production

Regolith Processing Line Design

Fiberglass line: - MRE electrolysis -> silicate melt -> W bushings -> 28 t/day fiber - Application: composite domes for factories - Details: fiberglass line

Titanium line: - TiO2 electrolysis -> PVD deposition -> electrochromic coating for mirrors - Application: mirror orientation control without fuel - Details: titanium line

Continuous slag distillation: - Al/Mg/Na/K separation at different boiling temperatures - Application: obtaining pure metals for production - Details: distillation

More details: Regolith Processing Overview

Material Production Line Design

Aluminum line: - Continuous casting for 50 um foil -> mirrors and concentrators - Details: aluminum line

Iron line: - Producing rods for robot frames and MD structures - Details: iron line

Silicate line: - Loom + laminator -> 8-layer composite for domes - Details: silicate line

Assembly Line Design

Mirror assembly (F-M): - ~350 mirrors/day (116 kg each) - 4 um Al foil + TiO2 electrochromic coating - Details: mirror assembly

Gen-2 robot assembly (F-R): - 5 robots/day (960 kg each) - >99% local materials per robot (Al frames + Fe assemblies), <1% “Vitamins” from Earth - Details: robot assembly

Dome assembly: - 8-layer composite (fabric + Al foil) for factory atmosphere - Details: dome assembly

Factory Equipment Assembly Line Design

For self-replication: each factory produces equipment for new factories.

Regolith processing line: - MRE cells (electrolyzers) - steel/ceramic body, iridium anodes (import) - Solar furnaces - Al concentrators (local) - Distillation induction furnaces - Al+Cu coils - Details: regolith processing

Material production line: - CC-Al, CC-Fe (continuous casting machines) - Fe frame, local crystallizers (Fe-6%Mn steel for Al, MgO ceramic for Fe) - 6-stand rolling mills - Fe rolls, local drive - Drawing mills - Si₃N₄ ceramic dies (local) - Looms - for silicate fabric, Al+Fe body - Laminators - for 8-layer dome composite - Details: aluminum line - Details: iron line - Details: silicate line

Assembly line: - PVD chambers - for TiO2 deposition on mirrors, steel body - WAAM equipment (3D printing) - for Gen-2 robot frames - Grinding cells - Centaur-M robot with Al₂O₃ abrasive head (100% local) - Assembly jigs - for Gen-2 robots

99% local materials: - Equipment frames: Fe (local) - Bodies, cladding: Al (local) - Furnace lining: MgO ceramics (local) - Heat transfer fluids: NaK alloy (Na+K local)

1% critical imports: - Iridium anodes for MRE (~10 kg/year per cell) - Carbide cutters (WC-Co, ~0.1 t/year) - Bearings, drives, electronics

More details: Factory Self-Replication

Each F-R produces ~83 t for a new factory (dome 8 t + equipment 51 t + robots 14 t + power system 10 t), enabling exponential growth: 1 -> 2 -> 4 -> … -> ~1650 factories in ~4 years.

Robot Development

Robot Gen-1 (delivered from Earth): - Mass: ~50 kg - Purpose: factory assembly, reconnaissance - Materials: composites, electronics (100% Earth)

Robot Gen-2 (produced on-site): - Mass: ~960 kg - Purpose: mining, construction, MD maintenance - Materials: 99% local (Al frames + Fe critical assemblies) - Critical imports: motors, sensors, control boards

More details: Robot Bestiary

AI and Control Systems Development

Robot autonomy: - GPS-free navigation (star orientation + SLAM) - Computer vision for manipulation - Swarm robot coordination for parallel tasks

Mirror swarm control: - Formation keeping algorithms (~1000 mirrors per cluster) - Focusing on Moon LSP stations - Electrochromic orientation control

VR simulators: - Mercury factory operation modeling - Algorithm testing before physical deployment

Mass Driver Development

Construction: - Track length: 2-3 km (Mercury), 0.5-1 km (Moon test), 500-1000 m (Earth test) - Launch velocity: 5 km/s (Mercury), 2.5 km/s (Moon) - Power consumption: 40 MW peak

Materials: - Rails: Fe (local on Moon/Mercury) - Coils: Al + Cu import (critical for conductivity) - Control electronics: import from Earth

More details: Mass Driver: Calculations

Phase result: Complete documentation, simulations, readiness for Earth prototyping.

Phase 2: Earth Proving Ground (years 2-4)

Budget: $12-20B | Peak: 15-25K people

Direction Budget ($B) People
Factory prototypes 6-10 6-10K
Robot prototypes 4-6 5-8K
Test sites 2-4 1.5-3K

Ground Zero Factory Prototype Deployment

Location: desert (Mojave/Gobi) - conditions close to Mercury: - Temperature cycles: -50C…+70C - Minimum humidity - Open terrain for MD tests

Infrastructure: - Vacuum chambers, thermal-baric chambers (-180C…+430C) - Thousands of Gen-1 robots, dozens of versions, crash tests

Test program: - 3-5 iterations of full production cycle - Autonomous operation test (30 days off-grid) - All production line validation - Robot testing in extreme conditions

Horizontal Mass Driver (test)

Parameters: - Length: 500-1000 m (shortened version) - Velocity: 1-2 km/s (below orbital) - Goal: coil, synchronization, control debugging

Test program: - Inert dummy launches (1000+ launches) - Coil and rail wear testing - Control system debugging

Result: - Electromagnetic acceleration concept validation - Component wear database - Readiness for lunar space tests

Phase result: Working factory and MD prototypes ready for lunar tests.

Phase 3: Lunar Proving Ground (years 4-6)

Budget: $9-18B | Peak: 10-20K people | Launches: 10-20

Why the Moon?

Parameter Moon Mercury
Travel time 3 days 3-4 months
Mission cost x1 x10-20
Iterations on error Fast Slow

Cargo to Moon (~60 t):

Cargo Mass Cost
Factory (modules) 35 t $0.5-1B
Robots (50 pcs) 2.5 t $0.2-0.3B
Concentrators, consumables 7 t $0.2B
Reserve, redundancy 15 t $0.3-0.5B
Total ~60 t $1.2-2B

Launches:

Scenario Price per launch Launches Total
Optimistic $50-100M 10 $0.5-1B
Baseline $150-250M 15 $2-4B
Conservative $300-500M 20 $6-10B

Ground Zero Factory - Space Version

Differences from Earth prototype: - Radiation protection (cosmic rays, solar flares) - Vacuum seals for domes - Thermal regulation: -180C (night) to +120C (day)

What we test: - Full cycle: robots -> factory assembly -> Gen-2 production - Lunar regolith mining and processing - Autonomous operation (1.3 sec communication delay) - All production line validation in space

LSP Station Development

LSP (Lunar Solar Power) - receiving and transmitting energy from Swarm to Earth:

Location: Moon limbs (east + west) - Earth visibility: constant - Reception from Swarm: mirror clusters focus light

Technology: 1. Concentrated light reception from Swarm 2. PV panels (GaAs, 30% efficiency) 3. Conversion to 2.45 GHz microwaves 4. Transmission to rectenna on Earth

Chain efficiency: - Swarm -> LSP: 95% (reflection + light transmission) - LSP PV: 30% (light -> electricity) - Electricity -> microwaves: 80% - Microwaves -> Earth: 75% - Total: 18% (vs 10% for orbital hub)

LSP advantages: - Heat goes into ground (no radiators needed in space) - Stable position (no station-keeping required) - Repair and maintenance by factory robots

Number of stations: 40 - Coverage: 24/7 reception from one station - Redundancy: system works if 1-2 stations fail

More details: Energy Reception Hub: LSP

Test Mass Driver on Moon

Parameters: - Track length: ~0.5 km - Acceleration: 1275g (Mercurian technology validation) - Target velocity: 2.5 km/s (Moon escape velocity) - Payload mass: 116 kg (test mirror)

Test program: - Inert dummy launches (100-200 launches) - Real mirror launches (50-100 launches) - Orbital deployment verification - Electrochromic control

Result: - MD validation for Mercury - Vacuum wear database - Space mirror coordination experience

More details: Mass Driver: Calculations

Energy Transmission to Earth (first test)

Goal: verify full LSP -> Earth chain

Program: - Launch 10-100 mirrors from lunar MD - Form test cluster - Focus on one LSP station - Transmit microwaves to rectenna (Nevada/Yakutia)

Test power: - 100 mirrors x 93 MW x 0.18 = 1.67 GW to Earth - Enough for a city of ~1.5 million people

Test result: - Proof of concept for full system - Public demonstration (political support) - Validation before Mercury

Lunar proving ground advantages: - Errors are less costly - lost a lunar mission, not Mercurian - Fast iterations - 3 days to Moon - Public success - energy to Earth already at this stage

Phase result: Validated system (factory + MD + LSP + Swarm), ready for Mercury.

Track 2: Rocket Program (parallel with Phases 1-3, years 1-6)

Year Tasks
1-2 Carrier selection, manufacturer contracts
2-4 Spaceport modernization (Baikonur, Vostochny, partners)
3-5 Carrier production ramp-up
4-6 Test launches, Mercury trajectory refinement

Note: The rocket industry - organic development. These capacities would develop anyway: commercial launches, satellite constellations, lunar programs. Project Helios only accelerates and directs the existing trend. Therefore, these costs are conditionally included in the project budget - additional targeted investments may be needed to accelerate the pace, but basic industry development would happen without the project.

Result: Readiness for ~50-100 launches over ~10 years (thanks to 99.998% localization).

Phase 4: Mercury (years 6-10)

After successful Moon validation.

Mercury Strategy: Redundancy + Reinforcement

Principle: Redundancy in E1, feedback before E2.

Stage Cargo Goal Risk mitigation
Expedition 1 150 t 2 factories + 2 MDs (redundancy) One fails - other works
Expedition 2 150 t Reinforcement: +2 factories Decision after E1 feedback
E3+ (optional) As needed Fixing critical issues Only if self-replication fails

Advantages: - Redundancy: 2 factories in E1 - one fails, other works - Feedback: 1 month of data from E1 before E2 decision - E2 correction: can adjust cargo based on E1 results - E3+ insurance: critical fixes if needed

Carrier Options

The project is not tied to a specific rocket. Delivery options:

Available Now (2026)

Carrier Country To LEO To Mercury* Status
Falcon Heavy USA 64 t ~20 t Flying since 2018
Long March 5B China 25 t ~8 t Flying since 2020
Angara-A5 Russia 24 t ~8 t Flying since 2024
Ariane 6 Europe 21 t ~7 t Flying since 2024
New Glenn USA 45 t ~15 t Flying since 2025
LVM3 India 10 t ~3 t Flying since 2017

In Development (2027-2033)

Carrier Country To LEO To Mercury* Expected
Starship USA 150-200 t ~50-70 t 2027
Long March 9 China 150 t ~50 t 2030
Yenisei Russia 100 t ~30 t 2033
SLS Block 2 USA 130 t ~40 t 2030+
Angara-A5V Russia 38 t ~12 t 2030

*Payload capacity to Mercury trajectory - estimate (~30-35% of LEO). High delta-v (~12.5 km/s) due to braking near the Sun.

E1 Delivery Scenarios (150 t)

Scenario Carriers Flights Note
Minimum launches Starship (2027+) 2-3 ~50-70 t/flight to Mercury
International fleet FH + LM5B + A5 5-8 Distributed risk
Mixed approach Starship + medium carriers 3-5 Optimization

Conclusion: By project start (2030s) next-generation heavy carriers will be operational. Average payload ~40-50 t to Mercury.

Expedition 1: Ground Zero Factories - Final Deployment

Cargo: 150 tons (see carrier options above)

Differences from Lunar Version

  • Enhanced thermal regulation: (-180C…+430C)
  • Solar concentrators optimized for 10 kW/m2 (vs 1.4 on Moon)
  • Enhanced radiation protection (extreme proximity to Sun)
  • Dust: abrasive + charged
Component Mass Purpose
2 factories (modules) 70 t Redundancy: one fails - other works
Gen-1 robots (2×56) 30 t Factory assembly at 2 sites
Starter concentrators 2 t 60 MW for 2 factories
MD components (×2) 40 t Parallel MD construction
Consumables 8 t Vitamins for one year (×2 sites)

Key milestones: - Day 7-14: Factories #1 and #2 operational! Begin Gen-2 production - Month 3-5: First MDs ready -> Dyson Swarm begins

Success criteria (by month 3): - Both factories produce 15 Gen-2 robots/month each (30 total) - Local concentrators provide 120+ MW energy - MDs under construction (50%+ complete)

Expedition 2: Reinforcement (Month 9-10)

“Leap of faith” with feedback strategy: - Day 7-14: Factories #1 and #2 operational -> data to Earth - Month 4-5: 1 month of feedback collected - Month 5: E2 launch decision (based on E1 data) - Transit: ~4 months - Month 9-10: E2 arrives

Decision options: - Everything OK or minor issues → E2 launches with corrections - Critical issues → E2 delayed, analyze, prepare fixes

Cargo: 150 tons (see carrier options)

Component Mass Purpose
2 factories (modules) 70 t Production scaling (total 4)
Gen-1 robots 30 t Assembly acceleration (112 pcs)
MD components 40 t Spare parts for MD #3-4
Consumables 10 t Vitamins for 2 years

Result: - Month 10: 4 factories operational - Production: 60 robots/month (instead of 30) - 2x faster growth from this point - First MDs ready by month 6-8 (from E1)

Expedition 3+ (Optional)

Condition: Only if self-replication is impossible.

When decided: Months 6-9, based on E1+E2 data.

Cargo: - Spare parts for real (not theoretical) failures - Corrected modules based on feedback - Additional resources for problem areas

If needed: - Launch: Month 7-10 - Arrival: Month 11-14 - Goal: Enable self-replication

If not needed: Project continues with E1+E2 resources only.

Regular Supplies from Earth

The base cannot be 100% autonomous. “Vitamins” are needed:

Category What exactly Why not on-site
Electronics Control units, sensors No microchip production
Rare earths Nd, Sm for magnets Not on Mercury
Iridium MRE anodes Ultra-rare

Vitamin Requirements

Per factory/year:
- Chipsets: ~72 kg (180 robots × 2 chipsets × 0.2 kg)
- MRE anodes (Ir): ~4 kg (replacement of worn ones)
- Nitrogen (N₂): ~3 kg (for Si₃N₄ ceramics)
- MoS₂ (lubricant): ~6 kg (60 robots × 0.1 kg/month)
TOTAL: ~85 kg/factory/year

Note: Electronics housings produced locally from Al.
Glass fiber bushings — Al₂O₃ ceramics (local production).
Wire drawing dies — Si₃N₄ ceramics (local, 3x lifespan).
Grinding abrasives — Al₂O₃ corundum (100% local from regolith).

Supply Schedule

Year Factories Cargo Launches*
7 25 91 t 2-4
8 120 214 t 4-9
9 500 519 t 10-21
10 1000 728 t 15-29
11-15 — 633 t 13-25
Total (Mercury) ~2,185 t ~44-88

*Launches: international fleet, ~50 t/flight.

Full project import (years 4-15): ~2,660 t - Moon: ~260 t (80 t initial + 180 t LSP vitamins) - Mercury (factories+MDs): ~2,400 t - Mirrors (electronics): included in vitamins - Vitamins (years 7-15): ~85 kg/factory/year

Details: Import Summary

Supply Economics

Delivery cost (international fleet): ~$2,500/kg
Total Mercury import: ~2,400 t × $2,500/kg = ~$6B

For comparison (without localization): 10,000+ t × $2,500/kg = $25+ billion
Savings from self-replication: ~$19 billion

Conclusion: Earth supplies are not a problem. This is <0.01% of mass produced on Mercury. 99.998% localization reduces delivery costs by 50,000x.

Days 1-7: Starter Energy Deployment

What We Do

  1. Robots deploy starter concentrators (1 ton = 20,000 m2)
  2. Install at “Peak of Eternal Light”
  3. Connect to power system

Result

Area: 20,000 m^2^
Solar flux: 10 kW/m^2^
PV efficiency (GaAs): 30%

Power = 20,000 x 10 x 0.3 = 60 MW

60 MW - enough for 10 factories (5 MW each, with margin)

First Factory Assembly (Bootstrap)

What We Do

  • 56 Gen-1 robots (Li-S batteries, 15-24 h autonomy) assemble factory modules
  • Critical checkpoint: Energy autonomy within 12-24 hours
  • After checkpoint, assembly time is NOT critical — constrained only by Gen-1 lifespan (2-3 years)

Details: First Factory Assembly (Bootstrap)

Scenarios

Scenario Before checkpoint After Total
Optimistic 12 h 6 days 7 days
Realistic 24 h 10-15 days 11-16 days
Pessimistic 48 h 20-30 days 22-32 days

Result

  • Day 7-32: Factory operational!
  • Begins producing Gen-2 robots (15/month)

Week 2-4: Energy Scaling

What We Do

Factory produces concentrators from local aluminum.

Requirement: 100 MW (factory + MD startup)
Needed: 37,000 m^2^ concentrators
Aluminum mass: 2 tons
Production time: ~1 week

Result

  • End of month 1: 100+ MW local energy
  • Starter mirrors from Earth no longer critical

Months 1-6: First Mass Driver Construction

Parallel Tracks

Month Factory Mass Driver Energy
1 +15 robots Site, excavation 100 MW
2 +15 robots Tunnel excavation 150 MW
3 +15 robots Frame 200 MW
4 +15 robots Rails 250 MW
5 +15 robots Coils 300 MW
6 +15 robots Testing 350 MW

Result

  • Month 6: First MD ready!
  • 60 Gen-2 robots accumulated
  • 350 MW local energy
  • Can launch 600 mirrors/day

Month 6, Day 1: First Launch

What Happens

MD launches first mirror into space
Mirror deploys in orbit
100x100 m = 10,000 m^2^
Reflects 93 MW solar energy

Symbolic Moment

First mirror of the Dyson Swarm. Beginning of a new era.

Month 6-7: Mercury Energy Saturation

Calculation

MD: 600 mirrors/day
In 30 days: 18,000 mirrors

Mirror energy (for base, 50% efficiency):
18,000 x 93 MW x 0.5 = 837,000 MW = 837 GW

Base consumption at this point:
- 1 factory: ~124 MW
- 1 MD: ~39 MW
- Robots, infrastructure: ~2 MW
= ~165 MW

Excess: 837,000 / 165 = ~5,100x

Conclusion

Within first month of MD operation, energy ceases to be a constraint forever.

Even per day:

600 mirrors x 93 MW x 0.5 = 27,900 MW = 27.9 GW

This covers base consumption 500 times over.

Months 10-15: Expansion (with 4 factories)

Now the Only Constraint - Robot Production

Resource Status
Energy Infinite (after MD - 13,000x excess)
Materials Infinite (Mercury is rich)
Robots Bottleneck (60/month for 4 factories)

4 Factory Advantage

With 2 factories (E1): 30 robots/month
With 4 factories (E1+E2): 60 robots/month -> 2x faster from this point

Strategy: Build Factories and MDs in Parallel

Month 4: 2 factories working (E1)
Month 6-8: First MDs ready (from E1)!
Month 10: 4 factories (E2 arrived) - 60 robots/month
Month 12: 6 factories (90 robots/month)
Month 15: 8 factories (120 robots/month)

Parallel: More MDs

Month 6-8: 2 MDs (first, from E1!)
Month 10: 4 MDs
Month 12: 6 MDs
Month 15: 8 MDs

Year 1: Results (E2 arrived by month 10)

Metric Value
Factories 8
Robots 120/month
Mass Drivers 6
Mirrors in Swarm ~1M
Swarm power ~93 TW (solar)
To Earth (18% efficiency) 16 TW

For comparison: World consumption = 2.3 TW

Already in one year - 7 times world consumption!

(Redundancy + feedback strategy adds ~5 months vs aggressive approach, but reduces risk significantly)

Years 2-4: Exponential Growth

Year Factories MDs Mirrors in Swarm To Earth
1 8 6 1M 16 TW
2 60 40 20M 370 TW
3 250 200 100M 1,900 TW
4 800 600 350M 6,500 TW
4.5 ~1,650 1,000 700M 13,300 TW

Conclusion: Redundancy + feedback -> reach ~1650 factories and 1000 MDs in ~4.5 years (+0.5 years vs aggressive approach).

Self-Replication: 1 Factory -> ~1650 Factories

Growth strategy: - Each factory produces 15 Gen-2 robots/month - Robots build new factories and MDs in parallel - Exponential growth limited only by robot production

Growth schedule (with redundancy + feedback): - Year 1: 8 factories, 6 MDs - Year 2: 60 factories, 40 MDs - Year 3: 250 factories, 200 MDs - Year 4: 800 factories, 600 MDs - Year 4.5: ~1650 factories, 1000 MDs

99.998% local materials (~129M t): - Robot frames: Al (local) - Factory structures: Fe (local) - Mirrors: 4 um Al foil (local) - Factory domes: silicate composite (local)

0.002% import from Earth (~2,660 t “Vitamins”): - Electronics: control boards, sensors - Rare earths: Nd, Sm for magnets - Iridium: MRE anodes

More details: Production and Self-Replication, Ground Zero Factory

Network of 1000 Mass Drivers

Each MD parameters: - Track length: 2-3 km - Launch velocity: 5 km/s (Mercury escape velocity) - Productivity: 600 mirrors/day - Power consumption: 40 MW peak

Total network productivity: - 1000 MDs x 600 = 600,000 mirrors/day - = 219 million mirrors/year

MD materials (99% local): - Rails: Fe (local) - Coils: Al + Cu import (critical for conductivity) - Control electronics: import from Earth

Single MD construction: - Time: ~1 month (with 60+ Gen-2 robots) - Mass: ~500 t (rails, coils, structures) - Launch energy: from local concentrators

More details: Mass Driver: Calculations

Dyson Swarm - Final Goal

Swarm parameters: - Mirror count: ~1.1 billion active (accounting for 3-5%/year degradation) - Total area: 1.1x1013 m2 (~11 million km2) - Mass: ~128 million tons - Solar power: ~102 PW - Power to Earth: ~18 PW (18% efficiency via LSP)

For comparison: - World consumption 2026: 2.3 TW - Dyson Swarm (by year 10): 9,430 TW = 4100x world consumption

Swarm organization: - Mirrors in clusters of 1000-10,000 - Each cluster = virtual antenna ~100 km - Focusing on LSP stations on Moon limbs - Electrochromic orientation control (no fuel)

Construction time: - ~9.5 years from first factory to 1.1 billion active mirrors - Mirror degradation already accounted in calculations

Disposal: - Failed mirrors fall into the Sun - No space debris around Earth

More details: Swarm Mirrors, Scaling

Year 4.5: Goal Achieved

1000 Mass Drivers

Productivity: 1000 x 600 = 600,000 mirrors/day
= 219 million mirrors/year

Energy to Earth:
219M x 93 MW x 0.20 = 4,073 TW/year added

By year 4.5 in Swarm: ~700M active mirrors
Power: 700M x 93 MW x 0.20 ≈ 13,000 TW ≈ 13 PW

Comparison

Metric Value
World consumption 2026 2.3 TW
Dyson Swarm (year 4.5) 13,300 TW
Ratio 5,800x

Why Not Infinite Growth

Criticism: “Exponential growth is fantasy. You’re just drawing pretty tables.”

Response: Criticism is valid if the goal is infinite growth for growth’s sake. But our goal is finite:

Project Goal

Parameter Value
Target power ~13,000 TW
World consumption 2.3 TW
Margin ~5,800x
Time to achieve 4.5 years

Why ~6000x margin? - Mars terraforming (magnetic field) - Interplanetary logistics - Population and consumption growth (100 years ahead) - Space industry

After Year 4.5: Maintenance Mode

Growth STOPS after reaching goal:
- 1000 MDs operating
- Factories switch to repair and replacement
- New mirrors = replace worn ones
- Vitamin supplies continue

Exponential is Tool, Not Goal

Phase Years Mode Goal
Ramp-up 0–4.5 Exponential growth Reach 1000 MDs
Plateau 4.5+ Maintenance System operation

Main conclusion: We’re not building an infinite machine. We’re building infrastructure with a finite goal. Exponential is only needed to reach the goal in reasonable time (4.5 years instead of 30).

Energy Reception Infrastructure (years 4-10)

In parallel with Mercury operations, infrastructure for receiving and transmitting energy to Earth is being built.

LSP Stations (Moon)

LSP (Lunar Solar Power) — a network of stations on lunar limbs receiving light from the Swarm and transmitting energy to Earth via microwaves.

Parameter Value
Stations 40
PV area per station ~160 km² (6,400 km² total)
Location Lunar limbs (eastern + western)
Mass ~178,000 t
Production From lunar materials (Si, Al)
Construction time 4-6 years
Rate ~50,000 t/year

Rectennas (Earth)

Global network of microwave receivers for 24/7 energy reception from LSP stations.

Parameter Value
Count ~100 stations
Area each ~100 km² (10×10 km)
Materials Al/Cu dipoles, Si diodes
Production Earth-based
Budget $10-20B
Timeline 3-5 years (parallel with Mercury)

Rectenna locations: sparsely populated regions — Yakutia, Kazakhstan, Nevada, Gobi, Sahara, Atacama.

Construction Timeline

Year LSP (Moon) Rectennas (Earth)
4-6 Test station Pilot rectenna (1-2 units)
6-8 15 stations 30 rectennas
8-10 40 stations 100 rectennas

Synchronization with Mercury: By year 8 (when the Swarm starts producing significant energy) reception infrastructure is ready to receive 1+ PW.

More details: Energy Reception Hub — efficiency, safety, alternative architectures

Key Milestones for Entire Project

Preparation Phases (years 1-6)

Year Event
1 Project start, design begins
2 First robot and factory prototypes
3 Earth proving ground operational, full test cycle
4 First lunar expedition
5 Lunar factory operational, producing robots
6 Lunar proving ground validated, Mercury readiness

Mercury Phase (years 6–10.5)

Moment Event
Year 6, Day 0 Expedition 1 landing on Mercury
Day 7–14 Factories #1 and #2 operational (redundancy)
Month 5 E2 launch decision (after 1 month feedback)
Month 9–10 Expedition 2 arrival (+2 factories, total 4)
Month 6–8 First MDs - energy export begins
Year 7 16 TW on receivers (8x world consumption)
Year 8 370 TW (160x world consumption)
Year 10.5 1000 MDs, ~5800x world consumption

Critical Path for Entire Project

PREPARATION (years 1-6):
+-------------------------------------------------------------+
| Phase 1: R&D (years 1-6+) ---------------------------+      |
|           |                                          |      |
|           +---> Phase 2: Earth Proving (years 2-4)   |      |
|           |            |                             |      |
|           +---> Phase 3: Moon (years 4-6) ---> Validation   |
+-------------------------------------------------------------+
                              |
MERCURY (years 6–10.5):
+-------------------------------------------------------------+
| Phase 4: E1 (150 t, 2 factories):                           |
|   Landing (mo 4) -> 2 factories (7-14 d) -> 2 MDs (mo 3-5) -+
|                   |                                   |     |
|            Concentrators (parallel)                   v     |
|                                             +-- Expansion   |
|   Decision (mo 5) -> E2 (mo 9-10) -----------+              |
|          ^                                                  |
|     After 1 mo feedback                                     |
|                                                             |
|   E3+ (optional): only if self-replication impossible       |
+-------------------------------------------------------------+

Key decisions: - Redundancy in E1: 2 factories instead of 1 - E2 decision: after 1 month of data from Mercury (not blind launch) - After first MD - energy is infinite, growth limited only by robots - E3+: insurance for critical systemic errors

Known Limitations

Attention: This section describes problems requiring solutions.

Critical Issues

1. Timelines Are Underestimated

Phase Planned timeline Realistic estimate
R&D 2 years 3-4 years
Earth proving ground 2 years 3-4 years
Moon proving ground 2 years 3-5 years
Mercury to 1000 MDs 4 years 5-7 years
Total 10 years 14-20 years

Reasons: - Each problem in space -> months of waiting - AI development is unpredictable (Waymo: 15 years, no full autonomy) - Political delays not accounted for

2. Mercury Expeditions - Risk Mitigation

Old approach (rejected): E2 launched before E1 landing (“blind launch”).

New approach: Redundancy + feedback before decision.

Mitigation Effect
2 factories in E1 (redundancy) One fails - other works
E2 decision after E1 landing 1 month of data before launch
E2 correction possible Spare parts for real failures
E3+ as insurance If self-replication impossible

Residual risk: If both factories fail systemically (e.g., MRE doesn’t work in Mercury conditions) - ~$3-4B lost. Probability: <5% after lunar validation.

High Issues

3. Next-Generation Super-Heavy Carriers

Project depends on carriers with ~$1,000-2,500/kg cost appearing:

Carrier Country Payload capacity Status
New Glenn USA 45 t Flying since 2025
Starship USA 150-200 t 2027
Long March 9 China 150 t 2030
Yenisei Russia 100 t 2033
SHLV India ~100 t 2035+
Assumption Risk
Target price $1,000-1,500/kg by 2030 Could be $2,500-3,000/kg
100-150 t to LEO Real capacity may be lower

Consequences: If super-heavy carrier development delays, project shifts 2-3 years. Risk reduced through diversification: multiple countries developing such carriers in parallel.

4. Lunar Proving Ground May Be Insufficient

Parameter Moon Mercury
Temperature -180C…+120C -180C…+430C
Solar flux 1.4 kW/m2 10 kW/m2
Radiation Moderate Extreme
Dust Abrasive Abrasive + charged

Risk: Moon success doesn’t guarantee Mercury success.

Require Research

5. International Cooperation

  • Project requires USA, China, Russia, EU, India participation
  • Geopolitical situation 2026 - tense
  • Sanctions and export controls block technology transfer

Scenario: Competition instead of cooperation -> expense duplication, slowdown.

6. Regulatory Barriers

  • Laser energy transmission through atmosphere - requires international agreements
  • Frequency regulation for billion mirrors - doesn’t exist
  • Space debris liability - not defined

Adjusted Timelines

Scenario Total time Comment
Optimistic 10-12 years Everything goes to plan
Baseline 14-16 years Moderate delays
Conservative 18-25 years Serious problems

Conclusion: Realistic timeline to 1000 MDs - 14-16 years, not 10 years.

Calculation References