Factory Self-Replication

TL;DR

  • Concept: Each factory builds new factories from local materials
  • Rate: Self-replication in ~3 weeks/factory, but practical growth 1 → 1000 takes ~4 years (bottleneck: “Vitamins” delivery from Earth)
  • Key: Energy independence (~151 MW from CPV from day one)
  • Phases: Bootstrap (2 months) → Factory Growth (4 months) → Infrastructure (1 month) → Mirrors (9 years)

Overview

Self-replication is a factory’s ability to produce copies of itself. This is the key technology for achieving exponential growth of production capacity on Mercury.

Energy Bootstrap (Phase 0)

Problem: How to start production without energy from the Dyson Swarm?

Solution: CPV system (~10.5 t: Kapton+Al concentrators + GaAs cells) provides ~151 MW — a ~27 MW surplus above the first factory’s consumption (~124 MW). Mass Driver (~39 MW) requires additional local Si panels.

Energy Reserve Calculation

Parameter Value
1 factory consumption ~124 MW
Available (CPV system ~10.5 t) ~151 MW
Reserve ~27 MW
Supports Factory covered; MD requires additional local Si panels

Conclusion: The factory is energy-independent from day one. No need to wait for the Dyson Swarm to begin replication.

Details: Production

Phase 0: First Mass Driver (Month 0-1)

Before factory replication, we need to build the first Mass Driver for launching mirrors.

First Mass Driver Timeline (1 km baseline)

Parameter Value
Mass Driver mass 500 tons*
Al production 42 t/day
Fe production 18 t/day**
Time for Al (~220 t) 5 days
Time for Fe (~270 t) 15 days
Assembly and testing 5-7 days
TOTAL first Mass Driver (1 km) ~25 days

*Baseline 1 km variant. For extended 2-3 km tracks: mass 875-1,300 t, time 40-60 days.

**Peak mode. Nominal Fe production is 11 t/day; peak for Mass Driver construction is 18 t/day via parallel melting.

Details: Mass Driver Production

Mini-Swarm for Mercury Energy

After launching the first Mass Driver, we build a minimal set of mirrors to power new factories.

Parameter Calculation
1 mirror intercepts 93 MW
After reflection (90%) and losses (15%) ~80 MW at receiver
GaAs panels (30%) ~24 MW electricity
Efficiency (mirror → electricity) ~23%
Needed for 10 factories (550 MW) 550 ÷ 24 = 23 mirrors
With 10x margin ~230 mirrors

Producing 230 mirrors: The first Ground Zero Factory can produce mirrors on the rolling mill (foil) with manual assembly. At ~392 mirrors/day — less than 1 day.

Logic: 230 mirrors power 10 factories with 10x margin. This is sufficient to start Phase 1.

Phase 1: Exponential Factory Growth (Months 2-6)

Replicator factories (Ground Zero Factory) build new factories. First — new Ground Zero Factories (for exponential growth), then — mirror factories (for mirror production). At 100% Ground Zero Factory allocation to replication:

Replication Timeline (theoretical)

Week Factories Note
0 1 Bootstrap
3 2 Doubling
6 4
9 8
12 16
15 32
21 128
30 ~1,000 ~7.5 months

Doubling time: ~3 weeks (at 100% allocation to replication)

Important: This is the theoretical rate with all materials available. Practically, growth from 1 → 1,000 takes ~4 years due to the bottleneck — “Vitamins” delivery from Earth.

Details: Production Scaling

What Does a Ground Zero Factory Produce for a New Factory?

Component Mass Time Details
Dome (8 t) 8 t 2-3 days Dome Assembly
Equipment (51 t) 51 t 10-15 days Equipment Production
Robots (15 units x 960 kg) 14 t 3 days Robot Production
Energy system (panels) 10 t 5 days Production
TOTAL ~83 t ~3 weeks

Parallel Work: Critical path is equipment (10-15 days). Dome, robots, and energy system are produced in parallel, so total time = equipment time + final assembly (3-5 days) ≈ ~3 weeks.

Growth Strategy:

  1. Exponential growth phase: All Ground Zero Factories at 100% build new Ground Zero Factories (doubling every 3 weeks)
  2. Switch to mirror factories: After reaching target Ground Zero Factory count (~100 units) — transition to building mirror factories
  3. Mirror factories are simpler: No WAAM/CNC, cutting table, or assembly jigs needed → equipment kit is lighter and faster to manufacture

Phase 2: Infrastructure Deployment (Months 6-7)

After reaching 1,000 factories, focus shifts to building Mass Drivers.

Timeline for 1,000 Mass Drivers (1 km baseline)

Parameter Value
Factories 1,000
Al production 42 t/day x 1,000 = 42,000 t/day
Fe production 11 t/day x 1,000 = 11,000 t/day
Mass of 1 Mass Driver (1 km) 500 t (220 t Al + 270 t Fe)
Materials for 1,000 Mass Drivers 500,000 t
Time for 1,000 Mass Drivers ~15 days

Conclusion: 1,000 factories build 1,000 Mass Drivers in ~2 weeks (1 km baseline track).

*For 3 km tracks: mass 1,300 t, time ~30 days.

Details: Mass Driver Production

Robot Deployment

Parameter Value
Factories 1,000
Robots per factory 60 (20 Moles, 20 Crabs, 20 Centaurs)
TOTAL robots 60,000
Robot production 5 robots/day x 1,000 factories = 5,000 robots/day
Time for 60,000 robots ~12 days

Phase 3: Mirror Production (Months 7-114)

After infrastructure deployment, all 1,000 factories switch to mirror production.

Timeline for 1.1 Billion Mirrors

Parameter Value
Factories 1,000
Mirrors/day per factory ~350
TOTAL mirrors/day ~350,000
Target 1.1 billion mirrors
Time ~2,860 days (~8 years)

Details: Dyson Swarm Mirrors

Resource Allocation by Phase

gantt
    title Deployment Phases (months) — 1 km baseline
    dateFormat  YYYY-MM
    section Phase 0: Bootstrap
    First Mass Driver (~25 days)      :2025-01, 25d
    230 mirrors (~1 day)              :2025-02, 1d
    section Phase 1: Factory Growth
    Replication 1→1000                :2025-02, 120d
    section Phase 2: Infrastructure
    1000 Mass Drivers                 :2025-06, 15d
    60,000 robots                     :2025-06, 12d
    section Phase 3: Mirrors
    Production of 1.1 billion mirrors  :2025-07, 2555d

Phase 0 Critical Path (1 km baseline)

Day Stage Work
1-7 Factory deployment Blitz assembly (Gen-1 robots)
8-25 First Mass Driver production Fe 15 days, Al 4 days, assembly 5-7 days
26 230 mirrors production 350 mirrors/day → less than 1 day
27+ Mini-Swarm launch Energy to Mercury (550+ MW)

*For 3 km track: days 8-60, first launch on day ~62.

Details: Roadmap

Bottlenecks and Risks

Bottleneck Risk Solution
Energy for first factories Energy shortage during replication Mini-Swarm of 230 mirrors powers 10 factories
“Vitamins” import Electronics, rare metals Regular runs from Earth (once per 3 months)
Gen-1 robot failures Fragile titanium robots Quick transition to Gen-2 (local Fe/Al)
Equipment wear Continuous caster, rolling mill Spare parts in first expedition

Bottleneck: “Vitamins” Delivery

Theoretical vs Practical Growth Rate

Parameter Theoretical Practical
Self-replication rate 1 factory → 2 factories in 3 weeks Same (local materials)
Growth 1 → 1,000 ~4 months (exponential) ~4 years (delivery-limited)
Bottleneck None (with “Vitamins” available) “Vitamins” delivery from Earth

Bottleneck Calculation

“Vitamins” requirements: - Per factory: ~2 t (electronics, Cu, rare earths) - For 1,000 factories: 2,000 t

Delivery constraints: - Flight time Earth → Mercury: 3-12 months - Launch rate: 200-275 launches/year (peak capacity of all spaceports) - Payload capacity: 30-70 t/launch on Mercury trajectory

Realistic scenario (from delivery.qmd): - Year 7: 25 factories (800 t cargo, 16-32 launches) - Year 8: 120 factories (2,200 t, 44-88 launches) - Year 9: 500 factories (7,200 t, 144-288 launches) - Year 10: 1,000 factories (11,600 t, 232-464 launches)

Conclusion: Exponential growth 1 → 1,000 in 4 months is TECHNICALLY possible (local materials available), but LOGISTICALLY constrained by “Vitamins” delivery and stretches to ~4 years.

Optimization Strategies

Option 1: Pre-staging “Vitamins” - Send 3,000 t of “Vitamins” BEFORE growth begins - Requires ~100 launches in the year before replication starts - Enables theoretical 4-month pace - Problem: Too large an upfront investment

Option 2: Parallel Delivery (baseline scenario) - Factory growth synchronized with “Vitamins” delivery - ~4 years from 1 to 1,000 factories - ~2,400 t total cargo (thanks to 99.998% localization) - Advantage: Investment distributed over time

Option 3: Hybrid - First 100 factories: rapid growth (pre-stage “Vitamins”) - Then: synchronize with delivery - Compromise: 1 → 100 in ~1 year, 100 → 1,000 in 3 years

Material Balance of Self-Replication

Material consumption (1 factory over 3 weeks):

Material Consumption Source
Aluminum (Al) ~50 t Regolith Processing
Iron (Fe) ~30 t Regolith Processing
Silicon (Si) ~10 t Regolith Processing
Imports (electronics, Cu) ~2 t Earth

Localization: ~97% by mass

System Performance

After Phase 1 (1,000 factories)

Parameter Value
Al production 42,000 t/day
Fe production ~11,000 t/day
Mirror production ~350,000 units/day
Robot production 5,000 units/day
Energy consumption ~165 GW (~165 MW × 1,000)

Energy supply: 230 mini-Swarm mirrors cover the first 10 factories. Continuous Swarm expansion is required in parallel with factory growth.

Final Numbers

Stage Timeline (practical) Factories/Mass Drivers/Robots MIRRORS (main goal)
Phase 0 2 months 1 factory + 1 Mass Driver 230 mirrors (mini-Swarm for energy)
Phase 1 ~4 years 1 → 1,000 factories ~143M mirrors (50% capacity on replication, 50% on mirrors)
Phase 2 1-2 months 1,000 Mass Drivers + 60,000 robots ~25M mirrors (parallel with Mass Drivers)
Phase 3 ~7 years Infrastructure ready ~832M mirrors (100% capacity on mirrors)
TOTAL ~11 years Full infrastructure ~1.1 billion mirrors in Dyson Swarm

Key point: Mirrors are the MAIN GOAL of the project. They are produced from the very beginning, not just in Phase 3: - Phase 1: Factories grow AND produce mirrors (50/50 allocation) - Phase 2: Build Mass Drivers AND continue producing mirrors - Phase 3: ALL capacity (100%) on mirror production

Note: Phase 1 stretches from 4 months (theoretical) to 4 years (practical) due to the bottleneck — “Vitamins” delivery (electronics, rare materials) from Earth. The self-replication rate (~3 weeks per factory) is limited not by local materials, but by import logistics.

Phase 1 mirror calculation: - Average factories during growth: ~500 (from 1 to 1,000) - Output: 500 factories × 350 mirrors/day × 50% = ~88,000 mirrors/day - Over 4 years (1,460 days): ~88,000 × 1,460 = ~128M mirrors (calculated) - With reserve for defects and losses (+12%): ~143M mirrors

See Also