Mars Terraforming

Calculations: Mars Terraforming

TL;DR

  • Main problem: Mars lost its magnetic field 4 billion years ago -> atmosphere is stripped by solar wind
  • Solution: Orbital ring of superconducting magnets (100-1000 satellites, ~1021-1022 A·m²)
  • Shield power consumption: ~100 GW continuous (comparable to Dyson Swarm output)
  • Sequence: magnetic shield -> heating -> greenhouse effect -> liquid water -> biosphere
  • Conclusion: Mars terraforming is a separate megaproject after completing Helios

The Mars Problem

Parameter Mars Earth
Magnetic field None (lost 4 billion years ago) 25-65 µT
Atmosphere 0.6% of Earth’s 100%
Temperature -60°C average +15°C
Water Frozen Liquid

Without a magnetic field: - Solar wind strips atmosphere (~100 g/s) - Surface is irradiated - Any created atmosphere will escape

Why Heat the Planet?

Terraforming Logic

Step 1: Magnetic shield
        ↓
Atmosphere stops escaping
        ↓
Step 2: Heating with mirrors
        ↓
CO₂ in polar caps sublimates
        ↓
Step 3: Greenhouse effect
        ↓
Temperature rises -> more CO₂ sublimates
        ↓
Step 4: Ice melts
        ↓
Liquid water on surface
        ↓
Step 5: Biosphere
        ↓
Plants produce oxygen

What Mars Has

Resource Amount Location
CO₂ (frozen) ~4 trillion tons Polar caps
Water ice ~5 million km³ Poles + subsurface
CO₂ (bound) ~100 trillion tons In rocks

Problem: All of this is frozen at -60°C. Heating required.

Magnetic Shield: The Serious Option

Why Not a Dipole at L1

NASA concept (2017) - minimalist dipole at L1 point: - Power: ~150 MW - Problem: This is an “umbrella”, not a full magnetosphere - Does not protect from cosmic rays - Does not create radiation belts

Full Magnetosphere

Option: Orbital ring of superconducting magnets

Parameter Value
Orbit Equatorial, 400-1000 km
Number of satellites 100-1000
Magnetic moment (total) ~1021-1022 A·m²
Surface field ~10-50 µT 
Comparison:
Earth: 8 × 10²² A·m² (at core) -> 25-65 µT at surface
Our shield: orbital ring closer to surface

Refined calculation:
For 10 µT field at surface from 500 km orbit:
m ≈ 3×10²¹ A·m² (30× higher than initial estimate)

Note: Calculation requires refinement - geometry differs from point dipole for orbital ring. Order of magnitude: 1021-1022 A·m².

Shield Power Consumption

Each satellite:
- Superconducting coil: current ~10⁶ A
- Cryogenic cooling: ~10-100 MW
- Mass: ~50-100 tons

1000 satellites:
- Total cooling power: 10-100 GW
- Total mass: 50,000 - 100,000 tons

Shield energy: ~100 GW (continuous)

Heating the Planet

Goal: Sublimate Polar Caps

CO₂ mass in caps: 4 × 10¹⁵ kg
Heat of sublimation CO₂: 571 kJ/kg
Energy for sublimation: 4 × 10¹⁵ × 571 × 10³ = 2.3 × 10²¹ J

At 500 TW power:
Time = 2.3 × 10²¹ / 5 × 10¹⁴ = 4.6 × 10⁶ seconds ≈ 53 days

BUT: also need to heat ice from -120°C to -78°C (sublimation point)
Add ~30% -> ~70 days

Conclusion: At 500 TW of directed heat - polar caps sublimate in ~2-3 months.

How to Direct Heat

Dyson Swarm mirrors redirect sunlight to Mars poles:
- 500 TW = ~6 million mirrors (100×100 m each)
- This is ~2.5% of the Swarm by year 3

Greenhouse Effect

After CO₂ Sublimation

Current Mars pressure: 0.6 kPa (0.6% of Earth's)
+ 4 trillion tons CO₂: +10-20 kPa
New pressure: ~10-20 kPa (10-20% of Earth's)

CO₂ greenhouse effect:
Δt ≈ 5-10°C per doubling of concentration
At 10-20 kPa CO₂: +30-50°C

New average temperature: -60 + 40 = -20°C

Still cold, but ice at equator will start melting in summer.

Enhancing Greenhouse Effect

For further heating: 1. Continue heating with mirrors (+10°C) 2. Add other greenhouse gases (SF₆, CF₄) 3. Release bound CO₂ from rocks (heating)

Terraforming Timeline

Aligned with prologue events (2075).

Project Year Calendar Event Result
0 ~2030 Landing on Mercury -
3 ~2033 Swarm operational (9,500 TW) Energy available
3-25 2033-2055 Priority: Earth Energy bridge, infrastructure
25-30 ~2055-2060 Shield construction 100,000 t delivered
30 ~2060 Shield activation Atmosphere stops escaping
30-35 2060-2065 Polar heating CO₂ sublimates
35-40 2065-2070 Greenhouse acceleration Temperature rises
40 ~2070 Mask instead of spacesuit Pressure 10-15 kPa
42 2072 First lake Liquid water!
45 2075 200,000 colonists Domed cities
70-100 2100-2130 Comfortable climate 0°C average
150-300 2180-2330 Breathable atmosphere 21% O₂

Terraforming Energy Budget

Task Power % of Swarm Duration
Magnetic shield 100 GW 0.001% Continuous
Cap sublimation 500 TW 5% 2-3 months
Heat maintenance 500-1000 TW 5-10% 100+ years
Water electrolysis (O₂) 100 TW 1% Continuous
Industry 50 TW 0.5% Continuous

Total for Mars: ~15-17% of Swarm power

Comparison with Swarm

Parameter Value
Swarm power (year 3) 9,500 TW
Mars consumption ~1,500 TW
Remainder for other projects ~8,000 TW 
Mars consumes 15% of the Swarm.
The remaining 85% available for:
- Earth energy supply
- Other planets (Venus, moons)
- Interplanetary logistics
- Space industry

Realistic Expectations

What’s Possible in 100 Years

Parameter Now In 100 years
Pressure 0.6 kPa 30-50 kPa
Temperature -60°C 0 - +10°C
Water Ice Lakes, rivers
Atmosphere 95% CO₂ 95% CO₂, trace O₂
Life None Plants under domes

What’s Needed for “Breathable” Atmosphere

Needed: 21% O₂ at 100 kPa = 21 kPa oxygen
Mass: ~5 × 10¹⁶ kg O₂

Source: Water electrolysis
2H₂O -> 2H₂ + O₂
Energy: 286 kJ/mol O₂ = 9 MJ/kg O₂

For 5 × 10¹⁶ kg:
E = 5 × 10¹⁶ × 9 × 10⁶ = 4.5 × 10²³ J

At 100 TW: time = 4.5 × 10²³ / 10¹⁴ = 4.5 × 10⁹ s ≈ 140 years

Conclusion: Even with a Dyson Swarm, creating a breathable atmosphere takes ~150-500 years.

Summary

Stage Project Year Calendar Requirements
Magnetic shield 25-30 2055-2060 100 GW + 100,000 t
CO₂ sublimation 30-35 2060-2065 500 TW × years
First lake 42 2072 Greenhouse effect
Comfortable climate 70-100 2100-2130 1000 TW continuous
Breathable atmosphere 150-300 2180-2330 100 TW for electrolysis

Why Not Sooner?

First 25 years (2033-2055) priority is Earth: - Building photoreceiver stations - Deploying Energy Bridge - Solving Earth’s problems (hunger, energy, ecology)

Mars is the second priority. Only after Earth stabilization does large-scale terraforming begin.

Key conclusion: Mars terraforming is a centuries-long project, but the Dyson Swarm makes it possible. First lake in 2072 - 42 years after project start.

See Also

Sources